Beautiful and dangerous: a week of "three witches"
Week "3 witches": the so called because it contains the Friday of the "three witches".
Apart from the jargon, we care to know one thing, that 20 (3rd Friday of the month) it is due to the Futures and Options (Fib and miniFIB) for the month of March. While
Options expire on the morning (during opening) of "every" month of the stock exchange, futures expire simultaneously only in March, June, September and December. But
dilunghiamoci in the operational details and we only However, taking into account a lot of these deadlines, as it is a particular week, very nice and very dangerous, as previously stated in the title.
When - as here - the options are very close to maturity, in fact, their "time value" is dwindling faster (other conditions being equal), while the "intrinsic value" is changed abruptly.
I realize that this is an incomprehensible terminology for the less experienced, and then explain it all with a very concrete and practical example.
For tomorrow, Monday, March 16th, I will consider two options Mibo, namely the Put and Call in March under 13,000 under 14,500 in March. Wanting to have
venture capital totaling 1,000 euros, I will try to buy (cheap: this is essential!) is that the Put Call to a maximum expenditure of about 500 Euro (equivalent to 200 points: I remember that the cost of Option is obtained by multiplying the number of points for 2.5 Euros, then 200 points cost 500 Euro). Probably not be able to buy them all, but this is the criterion, and then put immediately orders with clearly defined limits of the price.
In this case (is the last day) will inform you here, publicly, and from tomorrow I will send "signals" during the night only to subscribers, subject to publication on the "after" the end of the session.
Obviously I do not recommend an operation to take effective to those who will not subscribe, why not have a good time to follow my system.
Well, in case of future proposals will insert randomly (but not too much!) Based on identical price levels for the Call for 14,500 to 13,000 Put; precisely my orders are for the purchase of a plot for each of the two options, the following values \u200b\u200b(points): 50 - 40 to 35 - 30 - 25, total 180 points, or € 450 for each and / or the other, so that it remains a wide margin for commissions ( 3 to 5 euros per contract).
In practice, if the minimum Option (Call and / or put) is still above 50 points throughout the session did not even buy one, "below" the 50 points I buy one, I buy two under 40, under 35 will buy 3 and so on. In other words, buy all those that are higher than the minimum of the day.
Why do I say "higher" and not "equal." In short, if the minimum of the day should be 25, I will be sure to buy all or not?
No, I will have the "almost" sure, but to be sure the minimum price should be 24, because if it is 25 orders will be executed according to the time of insertion, and therefore preferable, where possible, incorporate them into night, or at least, on the morning early.
Anyway, back to us. Imagine for a moment (but objectively it is unlikely) that tomorrow is the call that the Put 14,500 13,000 touch a minimum of 24 points or less. In this extreme case I
tomorrow night I'll find myself in the portfolio Put 5 Call + 5, and I will have the account $ 100 less fees (30 to 50 euros in total, at current prices).
What if I then leave things as they are?
I tell you now: should I wait to see how it opens on Friday morning, the S & PMib and then wait for its official value (which is usually reported at around 9.10
always the 3rd Friday of the month).
At that moment my options portfolio would Adjusted with the official index, and the points would be calculated as follows:
If the index case, for example, 12,500, each of my 5 Put (Options which are downwards, and become active in this case, down from 13,000 ) will be worth 500 points, ie a difference to the bottom "between the base (13,000) and the actual value of the index (12,500). 5 put worth 500 points each, lead me therefore to collect 2,500 points, and since each point is worth € 2.5, will be credited to my account (2,500 x 2.5 =) 6250 Euro! In contrast, the call will remain strongly out of 5 price (because their value - as options to increase - this would lead to 14,500 and up. But - attention - merely Zero, but would not imply any other loss other than the purchase price already paid for (and even not pay commissions, as they are simply "abandoned").
Now imagine the opposite situation. If the index were worth 15,384 points instead, what would happen? That each of my 5 Call (which are options to increase, in this case they become active from 14,500 and up) will be worth 884 points, ie the difference "up" between the actual value of the index (15 384) and base (14,500 ). Call 884 worth 5 points each, lead me therefore to collect 4.420punti, and since each point is worth € 2.5, will be credited to my account (4420 x 2.5 =) 11,050 Euros! Put this time would be to stay out of the price (because their value - as options to the bottom - it would lead down from 13,000. Again, however, there would be no further spending for Put abandoned.
And what, finally, if the index opening Friday, March 20 remained in the area between a minimum of 13,000 and a maximum of 14,500 points?
Simply you reset both the Put Call, and then the account would remain only 100 euros (at net of fees) remained after the purchase, made Monday, March 16, the 10 options.
From these three hypothetical scenarios (all possible and plausible, especially in times like these) can draw some important considerations:
1) We can not under any circumstances lose more than we have already spent, because the worst possible case is that of a "zeroing" of the Options, and nothing more;
2) We can also increase tenfold (and below) our investment in a few days and without any effort;
3) Works such an operation would be to accept in advance the risk - absolutely practical - to lose almost all of the capital employed (which is why this type of operation implies that capital is only a fraction of the total available for investment at such a high risk.
And that's why I spoken, with good reason, of the week "beautiful and dangerous": great because you can also gains immense (potenizalmente also much higher than the values \u200b\u200bassumed); dangerous because the risk is substantial or almost clear of the capital employed. The fact remains that the risk / return ratio can be considered with greater confidence if, in fact, it takes only a fraction of the total capital ...
But there is still a way to reduce the risk (and also contain well below the maximum allowed) and / or to increase the potential gain, and that is to do some 'trading, ie buying and selling (once a day, before going to work, as the intent of this first training course on options) as required.
I mean it is true that the options (especially away from the base, like the ones we are currently considering) the last week very quickly lose their "time value", and then inexorably tend to depreciate when the market remains stable , but it is also true that enhance very quickly if they approach the value of the base, even without reaching it.
In practice, after a day (or even better a few hours) of operation, the S & PMib moves significantly upward, the call tends to appreciate much, overtaking the erosion due to the passage of time and also the inevitable devaluation of the Put, conversely, if the market falls, the Put would be to take (usually even more markedly) the role of "multiplier" of the investment.
short, a real struggle between "time" and "price", a particular week (as well as each week that include the 3rd Friday of the month, but now even more because the market is subject to fluctuations) because it is much easier straguadagnare (no theoretical limit), but is also much easier to lose (albeit strictly within the prescribed limits).
I do it with great passion, and I will guide you step by step account holders, however, - Against my interest - I think it appropriate to invite those who still do not feel prepared to postpone a possible real operation the following week.
you tomorrow!